Lloyds TBS analysis of Forex and Economy

The dominating events, influencing the market situation today are the American gross domestic product (GDP) and the meeting of FOMC. It is considered that there is very little that the Federal Reserve of the US can do, besides loosening the monetary policy of the institution for a certain period, putting the interest rates at level of 0-0.25 percent and expanding the debt of the agency.

The Federal Reserve will possibly stick to approach of waiting and seeing, and the markets will have to wait for any possible changes, which can be a reason for deflation. And although the GDP was predicted to show contraction of 5%, which is a little lower than it was in the fourth quarter of 2008, it actually reached 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009. Major reasons for this situation, named by the Federal Reserve, are lack of investment, both local and foreign, as well as decrease in the number of inventions.

The European market is expecting the outcomes of the monthly economic report of the European Commission, which will show sentiment indicators. The growth of money supply is predicted to decrease further, and the crediting level for both companies and individuals will lower as well.

Nevertheless, there is still improvement, expected in the European zone, due to industrial confidence indicator.